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On this episode of The nestegg Podcast, host Maja Garaca Djurdjevic and three experts discuss the ups and downs of online auctions, the power of activist short-sellers, and tax time 2021.

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Steve Waters, director of Right Property Group, chats about online auctions and why they resemble “a bad Zoom meeting”, the growing resilience of the property market, and how Sydney’s lengthy lockdown could shake things up.

RMIT’s senior lecturer of finance, Dr Angel Zhong, delves into short selling – the original trade that sent GameStop stock soaring – and how activist short-sellers are impacting markets.

And lastly, tax and super guru Timothy Munro talks about those early tax lodgers and possible ramifications, as well as detailing the temporary shortcut method, which you may be able to use this tax time.

Have a question for our experts? Get in touch at [email protected] and you might get featured on the next episode.

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Three signs the Aussie dollar is set to depreciate

By Reporter

May 18 2017
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Invest

Three signs the Aussie dollar is set to depreciate

By Reporter
May 18 2017

Despite its resilience in recent months, the Australian dollar looks ready to depreciate in value relative to the US dollar, AMP Capital has said.

AMP Capital, Shane Oliver, Australian dollar, foreign exchange, forex, FX, currency markets, investing, retirement savings, how to,

Three signs the Aussie dollar is set to depreciate

By Reporter

May 18 2017
Share

Despite its resilience in recent months, the Australian dollar looks ready to depreciate in value relative to the US dollar, AMP Capital has said.

The Australian dollar’s relative value has stayed steady between $0.72 and $0.78 US since January 2016, according to AMP Capital’s chief economist Shane Oliver, but this trend looks set to reverse for three key reasons.

Prices for Australia’s commodity exports are on their way down

The price of Australia’s commodity exports, such as iron ore, coal, and metals, is a key driver for the Australian dollar, Mr Oliver said, with higher prices increasing the nation’s terms of trade (the ratio that measures the value of goods exported to the value of those imported and thus indicating how much capital a country is gaining or losing in a given time period).

“Raw material prices go through roughly 10-year upswings followed by 10 to 20 year downswings,” Mr Oliver said.

“These long-term moves reflect long lags in supply. For example, if commodity prices surge after years of undersupply, producers initially don’t believe it’s sustainable but, after several years, start to invest in new supply by which time the cycle is peaking.

“Then, when the new supply comes on stream, it accentuates the downswing and it all repeats in reverse.”

Resource projects have seen record investment recently, Mr Oliver said, and as a result have caused a “surge in supply”, placing Australia at the end of the upward swing in this commodity price cycle.

The interest rate gap between Australia and the US will likely narrow

A country with a higher interest rate is a more attractive location for an investor to park their money, and subsequently experiences upward pressure on its currency, Mr Oliver explained.

Australia’s interest rate is currently at 1.5 per cent, somewhat higher that the 0.75-1.00 per cent rate in the US. However, the US Federal Reserve is expected to increase this twice more this year, in June and September, Mr Oliver said.

“This will take the Fed Funds rate to a range of 1.25-1.5 per cent.

“If the RBA leaves rates on hold at 1.5 per cent, which is our base case, then the gap between Australian and US official interest rates will have virtually closed by September.”

Historically, the Australian dollar has depreciated in value as the gap between the two countries’ interest rates has narrowed, Mr Oliver said.

Current expectations for the dollar may be too high

According to Mr Oliver, speculative positions on the Australian dollar are currently long, meaning many investors expect the dollar’s value to rise, which leaves the currency even more vulnerable to softness in commodity prices, rate hikes in the US or cuts in Australia.

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