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On this episode of The nestegg Podcast, host Maja Garaca Djurdjevic and three experts discuss the latest in equities, property investing and super.

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Steve Waters, director of Right Property Group, chats about the latest in property, including CoreLogic’s latest findings, which suggest national home values have increased at the fastest pace in over 30 years, and why he isn’t quite sure this is the case.

RMIT’s senior lecturer of finance, Dr Angel Zhong, talks about soaring travel stocks, the rising popularity of NFTs and what they are, as well as the sudden meltdown of Archegos Capital Management.

And lastly, tax and super guru Timothy Munro gives his thoughts on Paul Keating’s early release of super verdict, as well as an overview of life after JobKeeper.

Have a question for our experts? Get in touch at [email protected] and you might get featured on the next episode.

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Bushfires make February cut likely

By Cameron Micallef

January 13 2020
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Invest

Bushfires make February cut likely

By Cameron Micallef
January 13 2020

The ongoing bushfire crisis is tipped to detract 0.4 per cent from Australia’s GDP, reinforcing the likelihood of a February rate cut, economists have suggested.

Bushfires make February cut likely

By Cameron Micallef

January 13 2020
Share

The ongoing bushfire crisis is tipped to detract 0.4 per cent from Australia’s GDP, reinforcing the likelihood of a February rate cut, economists have suggested.

The Australian bushfire season has now reportedly destroyed more than 7 million hectares of bushland since September 2019, claimed the lives of 25 people and caused countless damage to wildlife, livestock and communities.

According to UBS economist George Tharenou, it is likely that Aussies will see higher food prices, along with rising insurance premiums, which will headline inflation in the short term.

However, higher inflation is likely to be trimmed out by “core” measures used by the RBA.

“Overall, we think this makes a rate cut from the RBA in February more likely.”

“Indeed, in the RBA’s December minutes they noted they would reassess the economic outlook in February 2020 and had the ability to provide further stimulus to the economy, if required. Hence, we continue to expect the RBA to cut rates by 25 bps in February, ahead of downgrading the economic outlook in the February SOMP,” Mr Tharenou said.

AMP chief economist Dr Shane Oliver also believes a rate cut will happen in February.

“With the bushfires likely to contribute to a flow of weak economic data for the next several months, questioning the RBA’s ‘gentle turning point’ in the economy and resulting in a movement away from the achievement of the RBA’s full employment and inflation goals, the fires have only added to the pressure for more policy stimulus,” Dr Oliver said.

“We remain of the view that the RBA will cut the cash rate to 0.5 per cent in February (with the market probability now up to 53.4 per cent from a low of 36 per cent before Christmas) and to 0.25 per cent probably in March,” he said.

Saxo Bank has also taken this view, with Australian markets strategist Eleanor Creagh expecting that the RBA will further decrease the rate once more in the coming year to 0.25 per cent.

“Raging bushfires, and a now resilient Aussie dollar lifting off support levels, will only add to the ongoing pressure on the RBA, particularly whilst the government continues to sit on the sidelines, leaving the heavy lifting to the central bank,” Ms Creagh said.

“The domestic outlook will continue to place downwards pressure on the currency’s recent rally and bond yields,” she concluded.

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About the author

Cameron Micallef

Cameron is a journalist for Momentum Media's nestegg and Smart Property Investment. He enjoys giving Aussies practical financial tips and tricks to help grow their wealth and achieve financial independence. As a self-confessed finance nerd, Cameron enjoys chatting with industry experts and commentators to leverage their insights to grow your portfolio.

About the author

Cameron Micallef

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