Borrow
Credit losses set to triple
The fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to a material rise in defaults on mortgages in Australia, a rating agency has said.
Credit losses set to triple
The fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to a material rise in defaults on mortgages in Australia, a rating agency has said.
According to a “Scenario and Sensitivity” analysis from S&P Global Ratings, credit losses across Australia’s banks are set to “more than triple” in the 2020 calendar year in response to the economic fallout from the COVID-10 pandemic.
S&P’s base case is for credit losses across Australia’s banks to rise from 0.14 per cent in 2019 to 0.5 per cent in 2020.
“A contracting economy in the short term, rising unemployment and depressed consumer and business sentiment in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak would drive an increase in credit losses for Australian banks,” S&P noted.
According to the rating agency, business loans would contribute to most of the increase in credit losses for Australian banks, with the tourism, transportation and retail services sectors likely to be severely impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak.
S&P Global Ratings agency believes households will also feel some pain, stating that it expects defaults from households to rise due to income loss.
The federal government and the Reserve Bank of Australia have concentrated most of their efforts to kickstart the economy on the business sector, providing low-cost credit and cash flow support to affected businesses.
Banks have also rolled out loan relief packages for both businesses and mortgage customers, which include options to freeze repayments for up to six months.
Despite forecasting a material increase in credit losses over the medium term, S&P said it expects defaults to the banks to “remain broadly in line” with its expected long-term average, with the ratings agency forecasting a “strong rebound” in the Australian economy at the back end of 2020.
RELATED ARTICLES
About the author
About the author
Banking
ANZ’s company-borrower mortgage clampdown: a risk reset with wide spillovers for SMEs, investors and non-banks
ANZ has tightened credit settings for home loans where the borrowing entity is a company — a narrow policy change with broad commercial consequences. It signals a shift in risk appetite across ...Read more
Banking
CBA’s investor-loan win signals a new phase in Australia’s mortgage machine
Commonwealth Bank’s outperformance in investor mortgages isn’t just a leaderboard moment; it’s a proxy for who owns the next growth leg in a broker‑led, increasingly digital mortgage marketRead more
Banking
A divided Big Four signals a two-track 2026: how to profit from rate uncertainty
Australia’s largest banks can’t agree on where the cash rate lands in 2026 — a split that matters more than the number itself. When the price of money is ambiguous, strategy becomes a game of ...Read more
Banking
Brokers own the mortgage funnel: Why a 77% share is reshaping bank strategy in Australia
Australia’s mortgage market has quietly consolidated around one gatekeeper: the broker. With brokers facilitating roughly 77% of new home loans, distribution power has migrated from bank branches to ...Read more
Banking
Commonwealth Bank leads consideration while People First Bank tops satisfaction in YouGov’s latest rankings
In a revealing snapshot of Australia's banking landscape, the Commonwealth Bank (CBA) has emerged as the most considered financial institution among prospective customers, according to YouGov's ...Read more
Banking
End of the easing: what a major bank’s call signals for Australian balance sheets
A major Australian bank now argues the Reserve Bank’s rate-cut run has hit a pause, resetting the risk-free rate narrative across corporate Australia. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest Statement ...Read more
Banking
Open banking, real returns: How an Australian brokerage turned CDR data into deal velocity
Open banking is no longer a whiteboard theory—it’s a working growth engine. This case study unpacks how a mid-sized Australian brokerage (“Pink Finance”) operationalised Consumer Data Right (CDR) data ...Read more
Banking
Open banking’s quiet revolution: how one broker’s data play rewrites speed, trust and margin
Open banking is shifting from compliance cost to commercial engine, and early adopters in Australia’s broking market are already monetising the curve. The playbook: consented bank-grade data piped ...Read more
Banking
ANZ’s company-borrower mortgage clampdown: a risk reset with wide spillovers for SMEs, investors and non-banks
ANZ has tightened credit settings for home loans where the borrowing entity is a company — a narrow policy change with broad commercial consequences. It signals a shift in risk appetite across ...Read more
Banking
CBA’s investor-loan win signals a new phase in Australia’s mortgage machine
Commonwealth Bank’s outperformance in investor mortgages isn’t just a leaderboard moment; it’s a proxy for who owns the next growth leg in a broker‑led, increasingly digital mortgage marketRead more
Banking
A divided Big Four signals a two-track 2026: how to profit from rate uncertainty
Australia’s largest banks can’t agree on where the cash rate lands in 2026 — a split that matters more than the number itself. When the price of money is ambiguous, strategy becomes a game of ...Read more
Banking
Brokers own the mortgage funnel: Why a 77% share is reshaping bank strategy in Australia
Australia’s mortgage market has quietly consolidated around one gatekeeper: the broker. With brokers facilitating roughly 77% of new home loans, distribution power has migrated from bank branches to ...Read more
Banking
Commonwealth Bank leads consideration while People First Bank tops satisfaction in YouGov’s latest rankings
In a revealing snapshot of Australia's banking landscape, the Commonwealth Bank (CBA) has emerged as the most considered financial institution among prospective customers, according to YouGov's ...Read more
Banking
End of the easing: what a major bank’s call signals for Australian balance sheets
A major Australian bank now argues the Reserve Bank’s rate-cut run has hit a pause, resetting the risk-free rate narrative across corporate Australia. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest Statement ...Read more
Banking
Open banking, real returns: How an Australian brokerage turned CDR data into deal velocity
Open banking is no longer a whiteboard theory—it’s a working growth engine. This case study unpacks how a mid-sized Australian brokerage (“Pink Finance”) operationalised Consumer Data Right (CDR) data ...Read more
Banking
Open banking’s quiet revolution: how one broker’s data play rewrites speed, trust and margin
Open banking is shifting from compliance cost to commercial engine, and early adopters in Australia’s broking market are already monetising the curve. The playbook: consented bank-grade data piped ...Read more
