Invest
OPEC delays crucial meeting amidst challenging negotiations and global economic concerns
Invest
OPEC delays crucial meeting amidst challenging negotiations and global economic concerns
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has postponed an important meeting scheduled for the weekend, suggesting potential discord among members, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank.
OPEC delays crucial meeting amidst challenging negotiations and global economic concerns
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has postponed an important meeting scheduled for the weekend, suggesting potential discord among members, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank.
The delay, reportedly due to troubles in discussions between Saudi and African members, indicates that the proposed additional cut of 1 million barrels per day (mbpd) might not be enough to sustainably boost oil prices.
The decision to hold off the meeting emerges from indications that the market did not rally as expected on news that Saudi Arabia may double its production reductions. Ozkardeskaya highlights, "Saudi likely sensed in this week’s poor price action - ‘buy the fact that Saudi will double its production cuts’ action - that 1mbpd extra cut wouldn’t send the oil prices higher, sustainably." It appears the nation is now seeking more substantial commitments from its fellow OPEC members, a process that seems to be fraught with difficulty.
Historically, Saudi Arabia has played the role of 'swing producer,' capable of balancing the global oil markets by adjusting its production levels to stabilize prices. However, Ozkardeskaya notes a change that occurred in the 1980s where "Saudi Arabia has shifted its strategy and opted for a market share approach," a tactic that dramatically increased production and led to an oversupply in the global oil market.
The current situation sees the American crude barrel price waver, dropping to $73.50 per barrel then recovering to $76, while Brent crude fell below $80 per barrel before rebounding. These market movements come amidst broader concerns over a global slowdown, overshadowing fears of supply restrictions.
The article also sheds light on other economic projections, pointing to Germany's slashed growth forecasts for 2024 due to constitutional issues around government spending, and the UK's downgraded estimates, despite tax relief measures announced by Jeremy Hunt. For the UK, even with the alluring "100% tax relief – on companies’ capital spending," the overall tax burden is expected to increase, reaching a high not seen since the post-World War II era.
Adding to economic pressures, disinflation appears to be on the horizon in the US, making this year's Thanksgiving more affordable. Adobe Analytics anticipates a 5.4% increase in Thanksgiving shopping, a figure that remarkably disregards a 12% growth adjusted for online deflation. Yet, this consumer spending is not entirely positive, as it partly stems from savings and debt, hinting at sustainability issues.
As Thanksgiving approaches, the US sees a drop in the costs of traditional holiday items, providing some relief to consumers. However, traders should brace for potentially erratic markets due to thin trading volumes typical of the holiday period.
In conclusion, Ozkardeskaya warns of the potential volatility in trading, "Thanksgiving is one of the calmest trading days of the year. Expect thin trading volumes and higher volatility." The intersecting narratives of OPEC negotiations, nationwide tax policies, and consumer spending patterns weave a complex picture of the global economic environment heading into the year's end.
RELATED ARTICLES
-
Australia’s spending surprise raises the odds of a February rate move — here’s how to protect margin and momentum
-
Australia’s inflation cools to 3.4% — why the RBA’s next move still isn’t a lay‑up for business
-
Inflation cools to 3.4% — but the RBA’s reaction function keeps businesses on a knife-edge
Economy
Australia’s spending surprise raises the odds of a February rate move — here’s how to protect margin and momentum
Household outlays are running hotter than economists expected, with the latest ABS readings showing broad-based gains across services and goods. That resilience is exactly the kind of demand impulse ...Read more
Economy
Australia’s inflation cools to 3.4% — why the RBA’s next move still isn’t a lay‑up for business
Headline inflation easing is good optics; balance sheets feel something different. With year‑on‑year CPI down to 3.4% in November from 3.8%, hopes for rate relief are rising — but policymakers remain ...Read more
Economy
Inflation cools to 3.4% — but the RBA’s reaction function keeps businesses on a knife-edge
Australia’s headline CPI edged down to 3.4% year-on-year in November, from 3.8%, easing immediate pressure but not eliminating the risk of further tightening. With services inflation sticky and ...Read more
Economy
Higher-for-longer, not higher forever: How Australia’s inflation ‘surprise’ is rewriting CFO playbooks for 2026
Australia’s latest inflation pulse eased but didn’t budge bank outlooks: near‑term rate cuts are still a long shot, with some houses flagging upside risk. That steadier‑for‑longer cash rate is pushing ...Read more
Economy
Australia's inflation illusion: the real challenge lies in pricing power and productivity
Headline inflation has cooled to 3.4% year-on-year, but the Reserve Bank’s caution—and a still‑hot housing backdrop—mean the rate threat hasn’t left the room. For boards, the next few quarters are ...Read more
Economy
When house prices lift, tills ring: A case study in turning Australia’s wealth effect into growth
Australia’s latest upswing in household wealth, anchored by higher dwelling values, is more than a feel‑good statistic—it is a profit and planning signal. The ABS notes property’s centrality to ...Read more
Economy
RBA's hawkish stance reflects inflation concerns, State Street economist comments
In a recent statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has signaled a hawkish stance on interest rates, drawing insights from financial experts about the implications for Australia's economic ...Read more
Economy
Navigating the inflation maze: How CFOs can outsmart economic hurdles in Australia
Fresh inflation data have cooled expectations of near-term rate cuts in Australia, intensifying pressure on margins, capital allocation and demand. Rather than wait for monetary relief that may not ...Read more
Economy
Australia’s spending surprise raises the odds of a February rate move — here’s how to protect margin and momentum
Household outlays are running hotter than economists expected, with the latest ABS readings showing broad-based gains across services and goods. That resilience is exactly the kind of demand impulse ...Read more
Economy
Australia’s inflation cools to 3.4% — why the RBA’s next move still isn’t a lay‑up for business
Headline inflation easing is good optics; balance sheets feel something different. With year‑on‑year CPI down to 3.4% in November from 3.8%, hopes for rate relief are rising — but policymakers remain ...Read more
Economy
Inflation cools to 3.4% — but the RBA’s reaction function keeps businesses on a knife-edge
Australia’s headline CPI edged down to 3.4% year-on-year in November, from 3.8%, easing immediate pressure but not eliminating the risk of further tightening. With services inflation sticky and ...Read more
Economy
Higher-for-longer, not higher forever: How Australia’s inflation ‘surprise’ is rewriting CFO playbooks for 2026
Australia’s latest inflation pulse eased but didn’t budge bank outlooks: near‑term rate cuts are still a long shot, with some houses flagging upside risk. That steadier‑for‑longer cash rate is pushing ...Read more
Economy
Australia's inflation illusion: the real challenge lies in pricing power and productivity
Headline inflation has cooled to 3.4% year-on-year, but the Reserve Bank’s caution—and a still‑hot housing backdrop—mean the rate threat hasn’t left the room. For boards, the next few quarters are ...Read more
Economy
When house prices lift, tills ring: A case study in turning Australia’s wealth effect into growth
Australia’s latest upswing in household wealth, anchored by higher dwelling values, is more than a feel‑good statistic—it is a profit and planning signal. The ABS notes property’s centrality to ...Read more
Economy
RBA's hawkish stance reflects inflation concerns, State Street economist comments
In a recent statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has signaled a hawkish stance on interest rates, drawing insights from financial experts about the implications for Australia's economic ...Read more
Economy
Navigating the inflation maze: How CFOs can outsmart economic hurdles in Australia
Fresh inflation data have cooled expectations of near-term rate cuts in Australia, intensifying pressure on margins, capital allocation and demand. Rather than wait for monetary relief that may not ...Read more
